终末期肝病模型对失代偿期肝硬化患者预后的回顾性分析
肝硬化;预后;终末期肝病模型;Child-Pugh分级;ROC曲线,吕晓辉,王炳元,刘红波,宋敏,通讯作者:,Prognosisanalysisofpatientswithdecompensatedlivercirrhosisusing
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吕晓辉, 王炳元, 中国医科大学附属第一医院消化内科 辽宁省沈阳市 110001
刘红波, 中国医科大学统计学教研室 辽宁省沈阳市 110001
宋敏, 中国医科大学病理学教研室 辽宁省沈阳市 110001
国家“十五”科技攻关课题, No. 20003BA753C
通讯作者: 宋敏, 110001, 辽宁省沈阳市和平区北二马路92号, 中国医科大学病理学教研室. songmin@163.com
电话: 024-83282199
收稿日期: 2007-01-04 接受日期: 2007-01-20
Prognosis analysis of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis using the model of end-stage liver disease
Xiao-Hui Lv, Hong-Bo Liu, Min Song, Bing-Yuan Wang
Xiao-hui Lv, Bing-Yuan Wang,Department of Gastroenterology, the First Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang 110001, Liaoning Province, China
Hong-Bo Liu,Department of Health Statistics, China Medical University, Shenyang 110001, Liaoning Province, China
Min Song,Department of Pathology, China Medical University, Shenyang 110001, Liaoning Province, China
Supported bythe National Medical Science and Technology Foundation during the 10th Five-Year Plan Period, No. 20003BA753C
Correspondence to:Min Song, Department of Pathology, China Medical University, 92 Bei’er Road, Heping District, Shenyang 110001, Liaoning Province, China. songmin@163.com
Received:2007-01-04 Accepted:2007-01-20
Abstract
AIM: To compare the capability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) in predicting the prognosis of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC) using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.
METHODS: The data of 171 DLC patients were analyzed with a cohort method. The patients were graded with MELD formula into 4 (MELD ≤ 9, 10 ≤ MELD ≤ 19, 20 ≤ MELD ≤ 29, MELD ≥ 30) and 3 (A, B and C) groups, respectively. The death rate was observed within 1 month and 3 months in different groups. The predictive accuracy of the two systems was evaluated by ROC curve.
RESULTS: The mortality rates of patients with MELD ≤ 9, 10 ≤ MELD ≤ 19, 20 ≤ MELD ≤ 29 and MELD ≥ 30 were 10 ......
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