云南省盈江县近17年HIV+/AIDS患者生存概率的分析研究(1)
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2010年8月1日
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【摘要】目的通过对HIV+/AIDS患者生存概率的分析研究,为制定防治策略及提高其生存率提供科学依据。方法用历史性队列研究方法,对盈江县近17年3477例HIV+/AIDS患者的个体因素及部分干预措施进行单因素和多因素COX比例风险回归模型分析,并用SPSS统计软件进行分析。结果本研究结果显示,五年生存中:1.个体因素:男性的生存概率(29.0%)远高于女性的12.0%;傣族的生存概率(33.4%)高于景波族的22.1%和其它的20.1%;个体商人的生存概率为32.9%高于农民的26.8%;丧偶的生存概率为12.5%。2.感染途径:吸毒传播的生存概率达30.7%,母婴传播的生存概率仅为2.7%;3.初次HIV检测结果十年生存的告知生存概率(11.6%)高于未告知的5.3%。十年的生存率均低于五年生存率。结论HIV+/AIDS患者的生存概率在各个体因素、感染途径各不相同, HIV+/AIDS患者的生存情况受到多种因素的影响。
【关键词】HIV+/AIDS生存概率生存分析
中国图分类号:R512.91文献标识码:A 文章编号:1005-0515(2010)08-021-04
To analyze HIV+/AIDS survive probability in 17 years in Yingjian county
【Abstract】ObjectiveTo analyze survival probability and survival situations of HIV+/AIDS, and provide scientific reference for prevention, controlling HIV+/AIDS and increasing survival rate of HIV+/AIDS.MethodsPersonal factors and interventions of 3477 cases of HIV+/AIDS in Yingjiang in 17 years are analyzed by Cox ’s proportional hazards regression model. ResultsThe five-year survival rate:1. Men's survival probability (29.0%) is much higher than female survival probability (12.0%); Tai's survival probability (33.4%) is the highest; Survival probability of businessman (32.9%) is the highest; Survival probability of people bereft of one's spouse is lower that just is 12.5%; 2.Survival probability of drug using transmission is up to 30.7%, while the exual transmission is 9.7%, mother to child transmission is only 2.7% ; 3. The five years survival probability (11.6%) of informing first HIV test results is much higher than those who didn’t inform (5.3%); In addition, the survival curve also has the same results. Survival probability of ten years is much lower than the five-year survival probability. ConclusionDifferent personal factors and infection routes of HIV+/AIDS have short living time, and certain interventions may increase their survival probability. So survival probability of HIV+/AIDS is impacted by many factors.
【Key words】HIV+/AIDSSurvival probabilitySurvival analysis
自1996年随着高效抗逆转录病毒治疗(highly active antiretroviral therapy,HAART)在发达国家的全面引入,HIV感染者的临床疗效有了明显的改善[1] ......
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