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2006年9月28日
[22] Larrick, R P. Motivational factors in decision theories: The role of self-protection. Psychological Bulletin, 1993, 113: 440~450
[23] Soll J B. Determinants of overconfidence and miscalibration: The roles of random error and ecological structure. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1996, 65: 117~137
[24] Erev I, Wallsten T S, Budescu D V. Simultaneous over- and under-confidence: the role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review, 1994, 101: 519~527
[25] Suantak L, Bolger F, Ferrell W R. The hard-easy effect in subjective probability calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Decisiton Processes, 1996, 67: 201~221
[26] Juslin P. The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal experimenter-guided selection of almanac items. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Process, 1994, 57: 226~246
[27] Juslin P, Olsson H, Bjorkman M. Brunswikian and Thurstonian origins of bias in probability assessment: on the interpretation of stochastic components of judgment. Journal of Behavior Decision Making, 1997
[28] Buehler R, Griffin D, Ross M. Exploring the ‘planning fallacy’: Why people underestimate their task completion time. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1994, 67: 366~381
[29] Arkes H R. Overconfidence in judgmental forecasting. In: Armstrong J S. Principles of forecasting. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001. 495~515
[30] Wright G. Behavioural Decision Theory: An Introduction. Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1984
[31] Yates J F, Lee J W, Shinotsuka H, et al. Cross-cultural variations in probability judgement accuracy: Beyond general knowledge overconfidence?Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1998, 74: 89~117
[32] Yates J F, Lee J W, Shinotsuka H. Cross-national variation in probability judgment. Annual Meeting of the Psychonomic Society, St. Louis, 1992
[33] Lee J W, Yates J F, Shinotsuka H, et al. Cross-national differences in overconfidence. Asian Journal of Psychology, 1995, 1: 63~68
[34] Li S. Decision-making of the collectivist family in risk-seeking and overconfidence. In: Kashima Y, Endo Y, Kashima E, Leung C, McClure J ed. Progress in Asian Social Psychology. Seoul, Korea: Kyoyook-kwahak-sa, 2004, 4: 263~288
[35]Yang Z F. Examinations, coping with examinations, and the relationship between exam-oriented education and quality education. Chinese Education and Society, 1997, 30: 15~17
[36] Johnson D W, Johnson R T. Creative and critical thinking through academic controversy. American Behavior Scientist, 1993, 37: 40~53
[37] Li S, Fang Y. Respondents in Asian cultures (e.g., Chinese) are more risk-seeking and more overconfident than respondents in other cultures (e.g., in United States) but the reciprocal predictions are in total opposition: How and why? Journal of Cognition and Culture, 2004, 4(2): 263~291
[38] 李纾，房永青. 《新加坡21》对双语青年学生的决策影响. (香港)青年研究学报，2002, 5(2): 162~171
[39] Forbes D P. Are some entrepreneurs more overconfident than others? Journal of Business Venturing, 2005, 20: 623~640
[ 上 页 ]
(于 窈 李 纾)
[23] Soll J B. Determinants of overconfidence and miscalibration: The roles of random error and ecological structure. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1996, 65: 117~137
[24] Erev I, Wallsten T S, Budescu D V. Simultaneous over- and under-confidence: the role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review, 1994, 101: 519~527
[25] Suantak L, Bolger F, Ferrell W R. The hard-easy effect in subjective probability calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Decisiton Processes, 1996, 67: 201~221
[26] Juslin P. The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal experimenter-guided selection of almanac items. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Process, 1994, 57: 226~246
[27] Juslin P, Olsson H, Bjorkman M. Brunswikian and Thurstonian origins of bias in probability assessment: on the interpretation of stochastic components of judgment. Journal of Behavior Decision Making, 1997
[28] Buehler R, Griffin D, Ross M. Exploring the ‘planning fallacy’: Why people underestimate their task completion time. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1994, 67: 366~381
[29] Arkes H R. Overconfidence in judgmental forecasting. In: Armstrong J S. Principles of forecasting. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001. 495~515
[30] Wright G. Behavioural Decision Theory: An Introduction. Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1984
[31] Yates J F, Lee J W, Shinotsuka H, et al. Cross-cultural variations in probability judgement accuracy: Beyond general knowledge overconfidence?Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1998, 74: 89~117
[32] Yates J F, Lee J W, Shinotsuka H. Cross-national variation in probability judgment. Annual Meeting of the Psychonomic Society, St. Louis, 1992
[33] Lee J W, Yates J F, Shinotsuka H, et al. Cross-national differences in overconfidence. Asian Journal of Psychology, 1995, 1: 63~68
[34] Li S. Decision-making of the collectivist family in risk-seeking and overconfidence. In: Kashima Y, Endo Y, Kashima E, Leung C, McClure J ed. Progress in Asian Social Psychology. Seoul, Korea: Kyoyook-kwahak-sa, 2004, 4: 263~288
[35]Yang Z F. Examinations, coping with examinations, and the relationship between exam-oriented education and quality education. Chinese Education and Society, 1997, 30: 15~17
[36] Johnson D W, Johnson R T. Creative and critical thinking through academic controversy. American Behavior Scientist, 1993, 37: 40~53
[37] Li S, Fang Y. Respondents in Asian cultures (e.g., Chinese) are more risk-seeking and more overconfident than respondents in other cultures (e.g., in United States) but the reciprocal predictions are in total opposition: How and why? Journal of Cognition and Culture, 2004, 4(2): 263~291
[38] 李纾，房永青. 《新加坡21》对双语青年学生的决策影响. (香港)青年研究学报，2002, 5(2): 162~171
[39] Forbes D P. Are some entrepreneurs more overconfident than others? Journal of Business Venturing, 2005, 20: 623~640
[ 上 页 ]
(于 窈 李 纾)