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2006年9月28日
[3] Klayman J, Soll J B, Vallejo C G, et al. Overconfidence: It depends on how, what, and whom you ask. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1999, 79 (3): 216~247
[4] Lichtenstein S, Fischhoff B, Phillips L D. Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. In: Kahneman D, Slovic P, Tversky A. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. UK: Cambridge University Press, 1982. 306~334
[5] 朱滢.实验心理学.第8版.北京：北京大学出版社，2005.468~473
[6] May R S. Overconfidence in overconfidence. In: Chikan A, Kindler J, Kiss I . Proceedings of the 4th FUR conference. the Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1988
[7] Gigerenzer G, Hoffrage U, Kleinbolting H. Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 1991, 98: 506~528
[8] Gilovich T, Griffin D, Kahneman D. Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2002
[9] Griffin D, Tversky A. The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psychology, 1992, 24: 411~435
[10] Liberman V. Local and Global Judgments of Confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2004, 30 (3): 729~732
[11] Moder J J, Phillips C R, Davis E W. Project management with CPM, PERT and precedence diagramming. Wisconsin: Blitz Publishing Company, 1995
[12] Seaver D A, Winterfeldt D V, Edwards W. Eliciting subjective probability distributions on continuous variables. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1978, 21: 352~379
[13] Juslin P, Wennerholm P, Olsson H. Format dependence in subjective probability calibration. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 1999, 25: 1038~ 1052
[14] Teigen K H, Jogensen M. When 90% confidence intervals are 50% certain: On the credibility of credible intervals. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 2005, 19: 455~475
[15] Sieck W R. Effects of choice and relative frequency elicitation on overconfidence: Further tests of an exemplar-retrieval Model. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2003, 16 (2): 127~145
[16] Sieck W R, Yates J F. Overconfidence effects in category learning: A comparison of connectionist and exemplar memory models. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2001, 27(4):1003~1021
[17] Lichtenstein S, Newman J R. Empirical scaling of common verbal phrases associated with numerical probabilities. Psychonomic Science, 1967, 9: 563~564
[18] Clark D A. Verbal uncertainty expressions: A review of two decades of research. Current Psychology: Research and Reviews, 1990, 9: 203~235
[19] Budescu D V, Wallsten T S. Processing linguistic probabilities: General principles and empirical evidence. The Psychology of Learning and Motivation, 1995, 32: 275~318
[20] Teigen K H, Brun W. Verbal probabilities: A question of frame? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2003, 16: 53~72
[21] Koriat A, Lichtenstein S, Fischhoff B. Reasons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 1980, 6: 107~118
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[4] Lichtenstein S, Fischhoff B, Phillips L D. Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. In: Kahneman D, Slovic P, Tversky A. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. UK: Cambridge University Press, 1982. 306~334
[5] 朱滢.实验心理学.第8版.北京：北京大学出版社，2005.468~473
[6] May R S. Overconfidence in overconfidence. In: Chikan A, Kindler J, Kiss I . Proceedings of the 4th FUR conference. the Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1988
[7] Gigerenzer G, Hoffrage U, Kleinbolting H. Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 1991, 98: 506~528
[8] Gilovich T, Griffin D, Kahneman D. Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2002
[9] Griffin D, Tversky A. The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psychology, 1992, 24: 411~435
[10] Liberman V. Local and Global Judgments of Confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2004, 30 (3): 729~732
[11] Moder J J, Phillips C R, Davis E W. Project management with CPM, PERT and precedence diagramming. Wisconsin: Blitz Publishing Company, 1995
[12] Seaver D A, Winterfeldt D V, Edwards W. Eliciting subjective probability distributions on continuous variables. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1978, 21: 352~379
[13] Juslin P, Wennerholm P, Olsson H. Format dependence in subjective probability calibration. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 1999, 25: 1038~ 1052
[14] Teigen K H, Jogensen M. When 90% confidence intervals are 50% certain: On the credibility of credible intervals. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 2005, 19: 455~475
[15] Sieck W R. Effects of choice and relative frequency elicitation on overconfidence: Further tests of an exemplar-retrieval Model. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2003, 16 (2): 127~145
[16] Sieck W R, Yates J F. Overconfidence effects in category learning: A comparison of connectionist and exemplar memory models. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2001, 27(4):1003~1021
[17] Lichtenstein S, Newman J R. Empirical scaling of common verbal phrases associated with numerical probabilities. Psychonomic Science, 1967, 9: 563~564
[18] Clark D A. Verbal uncertainty expressions: A review of two decades of research. Current Psychology: Research and Reviews, 1990, 9: 203~235
[19] Budescu D V, Wallsten T S. Processing linguistic probabilities: General principles and empirical evidence. The Psychology of Learning and Motivation, 1995, 32: 275~318
[20] Teigen K H, Brun W. Verbal probabilities: A question of frame? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2003, 16: 53~72
[21] Koriat A, Lichtenstein S, Fischhoff B. Reasons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 1980, 6: 107~118
[ 上 页 ] [ 下 页 ]
(于 窈 李 纾)