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Bronchodilator treatment and deaths from asthma: case-control study
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     1 Department of Community Health Sciences, St George's Hospital Medical School, London SW17 0RE, 2 Department of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, Liberty Safe Work Research Centre, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB25 2ZP

    Correspondence to: H R Anderson r.anderson@sghms.ac.uk

    Abstract

    The possibility that drugs for asthma might have adverse effects became an important issue in the mid-1960s, when several countries, including the United Kingdom, experienced a rise and fall in deaths from asthma that corresponded to the introduction and subsequent withdrawal of a non-selective agonist drug (isoprenaline) in a high concentration formulation.1 2 In New Zealand in the 1970s an increase in deaths from asthma corresponded with an increase in prescriptions of the 2 agonist fenoterol, and several case-control studies3 and one cohort study4 found that fenoterol was associated with an increased risk of death from asthma. Other factors, however, such as changing patterns in the use of steroids, may have played a part.

    Concern remains about the possible adverse effects of drug therapy. Short acting 2 agonists have been associated with rebound hyperresponsiveness,5 worsening of severity,6 7 and increased risk of death.4 8 A randomised controlled trial of short acting 2 agonists, however, did not show a clinically adverse effect.9 Adverse associations have also been reported for ipratroprium10 and theophylline.11 Available evidence suggests that the more recently introduced long acting 2 agonists do not increase the risk of death,12 while the use of inhaled steroids is associated with a reduction in mortality.8 13 We investigated the role of long to medium term drug treatment for asthma in causing or preventing death from asthma in a large population based case-control study.

    Methods

    Main findings

    In this large case-control study we found no evidence associating long acting 2 agonists with an increased risk of death in people with asthma. We did, however, find evidence of a positive association between death and the use of short acting 2 agonists. The main strengths of our study were that it included all certified deaths from asthma in people aged under 65 in defined populations, comprehensively recorded primary care and hospital outpatient prescriptions in an unbiased manner, and had sufficient power to exclude a doubling in the risk of death from asthma associated with commonly prescribed drugs.

    Comment on methods and study design

    The case-control approach enabled us to study a large number of deaths from asthma. A cohort approach using the UK general practice research database would have been limited in power and less able to reliably identify controls with life threatening asthma.8 12 An important but insoluble limitation of using hospital controls is that their asthma is unlikely to be as severe as in those who die. We made every effort to tighten control for severity by including chronic obstructive lung disease, age at onset, and previous hospital admissions in the model and by analysing a subgroup of deaths and controls with an admission in the past year. Nearly half of those who died had not been admitted for asthma in the previous five years, and 56% were not in hospital when they died. Deaths in the community probably differ in various ways from those in hospital, but to have restricted the study to those who died in hospital would have diminished the generalisability of the findings.

    Misdiagnosis of asthma as a cause of death is common and increases with the age at death. We did not set out to establish systematically the immediate cause of death because records relating to the final event are usually absent or incomplete. In all of our cases, however, asthma was mentioned in part I of the death certificate (in 94% as the underlying cause) and there was evidence in the primary care record that was consistent with asthma in life (diagnosis or asthma treatment).

    Though we could comprehensively ascertain which drugs were prescribed, limitations included a lack of information on dose, difficulty in distinguishing clearly between the prescription of oral steroids for a short course as opposed to long term use, and an inability to distinguish whether short acting bronchodilators were being used on a regular basis or as required.

    Interpretation of results

    In a case-control study like this, an increased risk of death associated with drug therapy may have various explanations6—for example, more severe disease or an increasing severity of the disease before death (confounding or effect modification by severity), or both; treatment for associated chronic obstructive lung disease (confounding by indication); a tendency for patients whose disease is not responding to receive a wider range of treatments; lack of more appropriate asthma care; and an adverse effect of the drug itself. A reduced risk of death may have the opposite connotations. As our main hypothesis related to the toxic effects of asthma drugs in the medium to long term, we attempted to reduce the likelihood of other explanations by choosing controls with severe asthma, using additional adjustments for severity and associated disease and for the number of other drug categories used.

    2 agonists

    There was no evidence to associate long acting bronchodilators (such as salmeterol) with an increased risk of death and this is in line with studies of mortality12 and of near death. If anything, there was some indication that this category of drug was associated with a reduced risk of death.

    There was, however, a modestly (odds ratio 1.5 to 2.0) increased risk associated with short acting 2 agonists (mainly salbutamol) but mainly in the previous 1-5 years. This is consistent with the results of two cohort studies,4 8 including one of 43 deaths based on the UK general practice research database.8 As in that database study we also observed a tendency for more deaths in those prescribed agonists alone and fewer deaths in those taking agonists with inhaled corticosteroids (table 5). Considering the modest increase in risk, and the potential for other explanations, we conclude that the evidence for a direct adverse effect of short acting 2 agonists is inconclusive but remains a matter of concern. Our study had insufficient power to come to any conclusion about the effects of fenoterol, which was rarely prescribed alone. On the basis of the upper 95% confidence intervals, however, we can probably exclude the possibility of a 2.3-fold increase in the risk of death (table 2).

    Other drugs

    The risk of death associated with antimuscarinic preparations (mainly ipratropium bromide) was increased but not significant in the full confounder model. Our estimate was considerably lower than that reported by Guite and colleagues, who followed a cohort of patients who had been admitted to hospital.10 Methylxanthines have been implicated in deaths from asthma,11 but we observed only a small and non-significant increase in risk.

    The inverse association between asthma death and oral steroids was confined to those aged under 45. Oral steroids are an effective treatment in severe asthma, and our finding supports the theory that insufficient treatment with oral steroids increases the risk of death. In the Saskatchewan cohort, regular use of inhaled steroids was associated with reductions in mortality and hospital admissions, but we found little evidence of an association. One possible explanation is the higher overall level of prescribing of inhaled corticosteroids, together with an absence of data on dose.

    The inverse association between death and prescription for antibiotics, which seemed to be confined in the main to the under 45 age group, has not to our knowledge been reported before. The evidence from two randomised controlled trials was inconclusive about the value of antibiotics in acute asthma. Apart from a protective effect, other explanations include a lower use of primary care services or greater adherence to UK guidelines which caution against the use of antibiotics.

    What is already known on this topic

    Various bronchodilator therapies have been reported to increase the risk of death in people with asthma

    The number of studies is small and the interpretation of associations is often limited by low statistical power and the possibility of uncontrolled confounding

    What this study adds

    In a large population based study, there was no evidence that long acting 2 agonists increase the risk of death

    Short acting 2 agonists, however, were associated with increased mortality

    Oral corticosteroids and antibiotics were associated with reduced mortality

    We are grateful for the advice and support of our steering committee, the Mortality and Severe Morbidity Working Group of the National Asthma Task Force, which included J Ayres (chairman), B Harrison (past chairman), D Stableforth, M Burr, W Berrill, V Fox, T Williams, S Wright, C Bucknall, F Chung, C Godley, G Houghton, T MacKay, S McKenzie, G Mohan, J Poundsford, and A Ross. We thank R Beasley, J Crane, and N Pearce of the Wellington Asthma Research Group, who are involved with another part of this study, for their advice. We thank our research assistants B Khoshaba, B Davies, B Eldridge, S MacArthur, and M Wardroper for their diligent field-work and the medical students who assisted with data extraction. We thank the large number of general practices, health authority personnel, and hospital staff who assisted us. The office for national statistics and the general register office supplied copies of death certificates.

    Contributors: All authors contributed to the drafting of the final paper. Additionally, HRA was principal investigator and contributed to all stages of the study, PMS contributed to the entire conduct of the study, JMB contributed to the design and analysis, BKB designed, supervised, and contributed to the statistical analysis, CP contributed to the statistical analysis, JCT contributed to the conduct of the study in the field, CRV and JGA contributed to the design of the study and interpretation of data. HRA is guarantor.

    Funding: UK Department of Health, national research and development programme (contract AM1/05/002) and UK National Asthma Campaign, through a grant from GlaxoSmithKline. No part of the design, conduct, analysis, or interpretation of the study was influenced by the funders. Comment on an early draft of this report was received from GlaxoSmithKline. This drew attention to an arithmetical error in one of the tables and raised one point of clarification.

    Competing interests: HRA has received funding for epidemiological research into asthma from GlaxoSmithKline in the past. BKB owns shares in GlaxoSmithKline. JGA has received funding from various pharmaceutical companies for attending meetings, advisory work, and research.

    Ethics approval: This study was approved by the South Thames multicentre research ethics committee and all relevant local ethics committees.

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